The Assad Regime Falls – What Next?
After 53 brutal and tyrannical years in power, the Assad regime in Syria has finally fallen. Rebels groups, led by the al-Qaeda splinter group Hayat al-Sham, have marched into Damascus facing little resistance, as government forces have either surrendered or simply melted away. Statues of Hafeez al-Assad have been toppled and are being beaten with sticks as I write and his son Bashir, who the late Christopher Hitchens famously compared to a toothbrush, has fled the country with his British wife, Asma. Jubilant Syrians are celebrating on the streets and refugees in neighbouring countries are seeking to return.
Syria has changed irreversibly and so have the power dynamics of the Middle East. The Assad regime was not only despotic, brutal and corrupt, it was also Russia’s only real Arab ally in the region and acted as a crucial link for Iran’s Shia Crescent. Syria contains Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean, Tartus, which allows Moscow to project power in the Middle East and beyond. It also acts as bridge connected Iran, Iraqi militias loyal to Tehran and Hezbollah, who have historically relied on Damascus for arms, training and logistics. Thus, the removal of this regime is significant blow for both Russia and Iran.
However, it is a huge victory for Turkey, who view their southern neighbour as a nuisance and a source of instability. The rebels who have seized the Syrian capital are backed by Ankara, who would prefer to see a more Turkey friendly nation to the south. This would allow them to shore up security at the southern border, which is currently controlled by Kurdish forces seeking autonomy. Settle water disputes the two nations are currently at loggerheads over and find a resolution for the disputed and strategic province of Hatay, which is currently held by Turkey whilst many Syrians believe belongs to them.
It is also a victory for Israel who has not only viewed the Syria-Iran-Hezbollah axis with a degree of trepidation, but has also bombed Syria on numerous occasions in order to prevent arms reaching Hezbollah. There is also the thorny issue of the Golan Heights which is Syrian territory that was seized by the Jewish state during the 1967 six day war. Israel continues to hold this patch of land for strategic reasons and is unlikely to want to return it regardless of what happens in Damascus. So whilst the removal of Assad has weakened arch-enemy Iran, what follows next may not be entirely in Israel’s favour either.
There is a predictable pattern with Arab uprisings in recent years, a much hated dictator is overthrown, the country descends into civil war, secular and nationalist factions battle Islamists for control, various regional powers back rival factions and the problems only continue. Libya, Sudan and Yemen are all suffering from the aftermath of chaotic uprisings whilst living conditions and the security situation struggles to improve. Syria, however, is particularly complicated.
In the Western coastal area of Syria there are sizable Christian, Alawite and Shia communities, to the south there are the Druze, to the north there are the Kurdish and the parts in between contain Sunni Arabs, who are further divided between secular and Islamist factions. Then there are the jihadists, who are also divided amongst themselves over strategy, tactics and interpretations of scripture. Whilst many of these differences have been put aside in order to overthrow the Assad regime, they are likely to re-surface once the dust settles and the various rival factions begin the inevitable jostling for power.
Turkey will prioritise their desire to weaken Kurdish factions in the north in order to control and secure even more of the borderlands and keep the Kurdish separatist threat at bay. The West will be hoping the Jihadist don’t seize power and use it to declare war on minority groups, non-Islamist rivals in the country and neighbouring states. Israel will be seeking to ensure arms stay away from Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Golan Heights issue is not re-ignited. In the meantime, Russia has been completely taken out of the picture and given their track record of bombing the country to smithereens in order to prop up the Assad regime, they are unlikely to make a comeback any time soon.
This leaves Iran, which has been significantly weakened since the 7th of October 2023. They have lost their ally Hamas in Gaza, which has pretty much been eliminated, their proxy force Hezbollah has also been decapitated and reduced to a poorly armed and much downgraded force, and now they have lost their most crucial ally in Syria. This makes it very difficult for Tehran to continue waging their proxy war with Israel and further provocations with the Jewish state are likely to attract more severe repercussions now that they have less retaliatory options on the table.
The Middle East is a complex and unpredictable place that is always changing but rarely for the better. Today it has one less despot to worry about but there is no room for complacency since what follows the Assad regime could prove to be equally despotic over time. Change is only good if it for the better, otherwise it is change for the sake of change. Or as the French say – plus ca change, plus c’est la meme (the more things change, the more they stay the same).