Is Russia Heading for Civil War?

Last night news outlets began to report that Wagner group fighters were heading for Moscow to take on the military generals and, possibly, topple the regime. As of this morning, it seems the mercenary group have taken total control of a Russian city and are threatening to capture more territory. Putin has already declared this a mutiny and initiated the ‘fortress plan’ which is an emergency plan designed to protect the Russian capital in the event of a siege. So how did we arrive at this extraordinary development?

The former hot-dog seller and petty criminal, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has had a meteoric rise to power and wealth in recent years which has been vastly accelerated by the establishment of the Wagner group. It has become an indispensable foreign policy tool for the Kremlin and is now active in Libya, Chad, Central African Republic and Sudan, securing mineral resources in exchange for military training, weapons and soldiers. However, its foray into Ukraine, to augment a faltering military campaign, has bought them into direct conflict with the Russian military.

The Wagner group does not answer to the military hierarchy and is, thus, fighting its own war on its own terms. This means Russia has two military forces that are not coordinated in Ukraine and that adds another level of difficulty and complexity to a war that is already struggling to achieve its aims. In recent months, Progozhin has accused the generals in Moscow of seeking to sabotage the efforts of Wagner fighters. He recorded a video in which he attacked the Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, and accused him of leaving Wagner fighters to die by not supplying weapons that were promised.

This level of open in-fighting is unprecedented in recent Russian history, especially under the Putin regime where a semblance of control and unity has always been projected. By openly taunting and threatening the military hierarchy, Progozhin is clearly growing in confidence and not concerned about repercussions from Putin. In fact, as I stated in my previous post on the Wagner Group in May, it is possible that Progozhin could use tensions with the military to make a push for power.

In recent days, Progozhin accused the Russian military of bombing one of his training camps and killing many fighters. His response was to threaten the military directly and to march on Moscow. His forces have already captured Rostov-on Don, which serves as the gateway to the Crimea and the base for military operations in Ukraine, and military facilities in Voronezh which is 600 miles north. He later said, “There are 25,000 of us and we are going to find out why there is such chaos in the country. There are 25,000 of us waiting as a tactical reserve and a strategic reserve. It’s the whole army and the whole country, everyone who wants to, join us. We must end this debacle”.

Progozhin is now demanding that Russian generals meet him in Rostov to explain their actions and offer apologies. However, he has already been accused of instigating an insurrection and it will be difficult for generals to meet a man who is technically wanted for the crime of instigating an armed insurrection. If they do not meet him, he can bring the entire Ukraine campaign to a halt and seize more Russian cities. Unless diplomacy behind the scenes can bring about positive results, direct armed conflict between Wagner and the military seems inevitable.

In my somewhat cynical view, this is about much more then tensions between Progozhin and Shoigu. The Wagner chief senses that Putin is weak and the military generals around him are even weaker, given the disastrous nature of the Ukraine campaign. A power vacuum is opening in Moscow and he views himself as the man who can fill it. He has the reputation, the fighters, the military hardware and the ambition to make a concerted push for power.

However, just strolling into Moscow and taking over will not be that easy. This is a city that is surrounded by flat lands on all sides and, thus, Russian leaders since the times of Peter the Great, have worked on detailed plans on how to defend the city from invading forces. The loyalty of the Russian security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to what happens next. If they decide to side with Progozhin then Putin and his generals are really in trouble. Either way, I think it is fair to declare the Ukraine campaign has failed and we are now witnessing a fallout which could be more momentous then any of us could have predicted.

UPDATE: As of 19.00 GMT+1 (24/06/2023) Progozhin has halted his march on Moscow after an intervention from Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. It is not known what the terms of the negotiation were but it seems Progozhin will now be exiled in Belarus and withdraw his forces from captured cities and military facilities.